Surge in Afghan Expulsions from Pakistan Sparks Humanitarian Crisis

A recent report from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reveals a concerning 33% increase in the expulsion of Afghan nationals from Pakistan during the first week of February 2026.

Escalating Tensions in February: A 33% Surge in Expulsions

The latest joint report from UN migration agencies published yesterday describes the situation of Afghan refugees in Pakistan as critical. According to the data, between February 1 and February 7, 2026, Pakistani security forces detained 2,013 Afghan citizens and forcibly expelled them across the border. This figure marks a 33% rise compared to the last week of January, indicating an unprecedented intensification of police operations throughout various provinces in Pakistan.

Fear of Detention: The Only Motivation to Return

A striking aspect of the IOM report focuses on the psychology of returning migrants. Interviews conducted with individuals who have returned to Afghanistan reveal that 99% of respondents explicitly stated that their sole reason for leaving their homes in Pakistan was the fear of arrest and violent encounters with the police.

This data underscores that these returns are, contrary to claims from Islamabad, not voluntary but rather the product of a systematic climate of fear compelling refugees to abandon their homes.

Return of 38,000 People in 15 Days: Additional Pressure on Kabul

The trend of returns in January was also reported to be exceptionally heavy. In the last two weeks of January alone, over 38,000 individuals crossed back into Afghanistan through official borders. The sudden influx of this population, amid the winter season, is creating additional strain on the already limited resources of the current Afghan government and aid organizations. Many of these families find themselves in dire humanitarian circumstances in border provinces, lacking shelter and sufficient cash.

Legal and Humanitarian Challenges at the Southern Borders

Experts argue that Pakistan’s use of migrant cases as a tool for political leverage constitutes a blatant violation of international refugee conventions. Given that many of these individuals have resided in Pakistan for years, their sudden expulsion not only poses a security crisis for Kabul but also creates a humanitarian disaster for families who left all their possessions behind and are returning home with barely anything more than the clothes on their backs.